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Bitcoin Hits $91,695 as Markets Rebound — But Are Futures Traders Onboard?
Bitcoin surged to a 45-day high of $91,695 on April 22, rising alongside gold, which hit a new all-time high. The rally reflects growing investor anxiety about a potential economic downturn amid persistent global trade tensions.
While optimism brews, analysts question whether the momentum is strong enough to push Bitcoin beyond $95,000.
Futures Market: Bullish or Cautious?
Bitcoin futures typically carry a 5% to 10% annualized premium in stable markets. Currently, that premium sits at 6%—a neutral reading. Despite BTC gaining $6,840 in just two days, the futures data suggests a lack of strong bullish conviction. Some analysts argue this could signal a growing decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional equities.
$90K Resistance: A Psychological Barrier
Traders remain wary of the $90,000 zone, given Bitcoin’s inability to hold above it earlier this year. On March 3, Bitcoin touched $95,000 but plunged to $81,464 within 24 hours. Since its January 20 peak of $109,346, BTC has struggled to find consistent upward traction, raising doubts among bullish investors even as gold continues to set new records.
Currently, Bitcoin trades 16% below its all-time high, closely aligning with the S&P 500’s 14.5% decline. This parallel suggests the era of excessive risk appetite might be waning. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s max drawdown of 32% is less severe than recent corrections seen in major tech stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.
Trade War Easing? Market Signals Mixed
Investor sentiment received a boost from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who described the tariff dispute with China as “unsustainable”—a hint that a resolution might be in sight. Meanwhile, President Trump blamed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for stalling economic recovery by not cutting interest rates.
This tug-of-war has driven investors toward short-term US Treasurys, with yields on the 2-year note dropping to 3.81% from 4.04% a month ago. Amid this flight to safety, Bitcoin’s 6.3% gain over the past 30 days stands out.
Options Market: Traders Still on the Fence
To assess professional sentiment, the Bitcoin options market offers important clues. Typically, a 25% delta skew above 6% signals bearish sentiment, while a reading below 6% reflects bullish expectations. Currently, the skew is at -2%—a neutral position.
The last notably bullish period in options occurred on January 30, when BTC traded near $105,000. Today’s reading suggests that big players remain unconvinced of a lasting breakout above $95,000.
The Bigger Picture
Despite mixed macro data, optimism around Q1 earnings remains. FactSet projects the “Magnificent 7” tech giants will post 14.8% earnings growth year-over-year, adding fuel to investor hopes.
Bitcoin’s path to $95,000 isn’t out of reach—but with market players still eyeing geopolitical and economic developments, particularly the US-China trade narrative, many are choosing to wait before going all-in.
